Rédaction Africa Links 24 with Ed Stoddard
Published on 2024-02-22 18:57:10
In a recent note to clients, Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, expressed concerns about the impact of February heatwaves and lack of rainfall on the country’s summer grain production. The start of the 2023/24 summer crop season showed promise with widespread rains defying expectations for an El Niño season, leading to farmers planting a substantial 4.4 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds.
The favorable conditions were further supported by good soil moisture levels, a result of three seasons of generally good rains due to a prolonged La Niña event. However, the situation took a turn for the worse in February as excessive heat began to affect the grain-growing areas in South Africa. The unrelenting sun has put a strain on crops entering the critical pollination stage, with limited moisture posing a threat to overall yields.
Despite early forecasts from the South African Weather Service predicting drier conditions for the summer, January saw reasonably wet weather in key grain-growing regions. The critical month of February carries significant importance for South African agriculture, especially for crops like maize, sunflower seed, and soybeans currently in the pollination stage. The lack of moisture in major growing regions like Free State, North West, and Mpumalanga has raised concerns about potential yield losses.
At the end of February, the Crop Estimates Committee will release updated estimates for the 2023/24 planting area and the first production forecast for summer crops, providing insights into expected harvest sizes. The US Department of Agriculture has already made forecasts, projecting a commercial maize production of 15.2 million tonnes for South Africa in 2023/24, a 7% decrease from the previous year but still above the long-term average.
While fears of a repeat of the 2016 drought-induced catastrophe are low, the impact of El Niño on the current grain harvest could have implications for food inflation. However, El Niño is expected to dissipate in the coming months, returning global weather patterns to neutral conditions. In the meantime, the adverse weather conditions are having a more significant impact than initially anticipated.
Overall, the challenges imposed by the combination of heatwaves and limited rainfall in February have raised concerns about the potential impact on South Africa’s summer grain production for the 2023/24 season. The agricultural sector will closely monitor developments in the coming weeks to assess the full extent of the situation and its implications for food security and economic stability.
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