Rédaction Africa Links 24 with Ed Stoddard
Published on 2024-02-20 12:57:44
The latest data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) reveals a troubling trend in unemployment, and it may be the final Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) before the upcoming general elections. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) will likely emphasize the eight consecutive quarters of job growth leading up to the Q4 2023 report. But the overall trend has been distressing.
According to Stats SA, the number of unemployed South Africans surged to 7.9 million in Q4 2023 from 4.8 million in Q4 2013, marking an increase of over 80% in a decade. This drastic rise is sobering, especially considering that a decade ago, South Africa’s unemployment crisis was already considered tragic with 4.8 million people unemployed. The figure now stands at nearly 8 million, a staggering and disheartening reality.
Moreover, the proportion of long-term unemployment in the country increased to 77.1% from 66.4% over the same period. These statistics paint a bleak picture of the employment landscape in South Africa, demonstrating a substantial and concerning rise in unemployment.
Amid these concerning numbers, the employed population in South Africa amounts to 16.7 million out of a working-age population of 41.0 million. The labor force is currently at 24.6 million, with 16.4 million individuals categorized as “not economically active.” These figures highlight a significant portion of the population either unemployed or not actively participating in the workforce.
Evidently, the continuous growth of the unemployment line will inevitably lead to a rise in poverty and inequality within the nation. The economic challenges, primarily stemming from issues in power supply, logistics, and crime, exacerbate the existing problems of unemployment, poverty, and stark wealth, income, and opportunity disparities.
On a sectoral level, the construction and agricultural industries saw job losses, shedding 108,000 and 35,000 jobs, respectively, during Q4 2023. Conversely, the mining sector added 37,000 jobs, but this upward trend is uncertain given anticipated job cuts in crucial industries such as platinum production.
Despite narrowly avoiding a recession in Q4 2023, with a 0.2% contraction in the previous quarter, South Africa’s economy is not expected to witness a robust recovery. Forecasts for economic growth in 2024 range from 1.0% to 1.5%, a pace that economists believe is insufficient for generating the necessary scale of job creation.
Economists such as Jee-A van der Linde, Senior Economist at Oxford Economics Africa, warn that incremental changes in the unemployment rate reflect a stagnant economy. The lack of substantial infrastructure investment over the years has limited South Africa’s economic growth potential, preventing the creation of enough jobs to meet the demand. This stagnation is expected to persist in the near term.
In light of these challenges, it is clear that policy measures and sustainable economic strategies are urgently needed to address the pressing issues of unemployment and underemployment in South Africa. As the nation prepares for upcoming elections, the unemployment data serves as a reminder of the critical importance of informed decision-making and policy reforms to stimulate economic growth and job creation. The road ahead may be challenging, but it is vital for national leaders and policymakers to prioritize sustainable solutions to improve the employment landscape and drive inclusive economic growth.
Read the original article on Daily Maverick
