Rédaction Africa Links 24 with Lizette Lancaster, Godfrey Mulaudzi and Gareth Newham
Published on 2024-04-11 10:14:33
South Africa is gearing up for its national and provincial elections on 29 May, which are anticipated to be the most fiercely contested since the country’s democracy was established in 1994. Recent surveys indicate that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) is at risk of losing its outright national majority as well as control of key provinces like Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. Additionally, the emergence of several new political parties has added further complexity to the electoral landscape, with concerns looming over potential outbreaks of violence during or after the elections.
The country witnessed a significant wave of violence triggered by former president Jacob Zuma’s supporters following his incarceration in July 2021. The riots and looting resulted in over 300 fatalities and left thousands unemployed, causing a staggering R50 billion loss to the economy. Given the scale of this unrest, there are understandable fears regarding the possibility of similar violence erupting in connection with the upcoming elections.
The situation was further exacerbated when members of the new uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, a group associated with Zuma, openly threatened mass violence if their demands were not met. This has raised concerns about the potential for a repeat of the violence witnessed in July 2021. Initially, Zuma was disqualified from participating in the elections by the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) due to constitutional restrictions on individuals with prison sentences exceeding 12 months without the option of a fine. However, a successful appeal by the MK party has cleared the way for Zuma to contest the elections.
The threat of election-related violence remains a cause for concern, particularly in light of inflammatory statements made by MK party members. While the party leadership has distanced themselves from these remarks, the specter of violence still looms large. The state appears to be taking a more proactive stance against such threats, as evidenced by the legal action taken against a senior MK party member for inciting public violence.
In addition to the specific threats posed by the MK party, tensions have been brewing between supporters of the ANC and the Inkatha Freedom Party, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal. Incidents of conflict between political factions, such as the recent altercation between ANC and Economic Freedom Fighters members in Gauteng, have underscored the potential for electoral disruptions in the run-up to the elections.
Despite these concerns, South Africa has a history of effectively managing election-related disruptions, with the Institute for Security Studies noting that protests typically arise from unresolved community grievances rather than coordinated political violence. The country’s electoral processes have generally been upheld in accordance with IEC regulations, with results being accepted by all stakeholders involved.
Looking ahead to the post-election period, there are worries about potential unrest if certain parties are dissatisfied with the outcomes. Formal coalitions may need to be negotiated in the event of a closely contested election, which could lead to heightened tensions as parties vie for power and influence.
While the risk of widespread violence akin to the events of July 2021 remains low, the government and security agencies are taking proactive measures to prevent any potential disruptions. Civil society organizations, such as Defend Our Democracy, are mobilizing citizen observers to monitor the elections, while businesses and communities are enhancing security measures to safeguard against any unrest.
The memories of the devastation caused by the 2021 riots continue to resonate, making a repeat scenario less likely. However, the lingering threats of violence underscore the importance of vigilance and preparedness in the lead-up to the elections. The state must remain resolute in its commitment to ensuring free and fair elections, holding accountable those who seek to disrupt the democratic process. As the country braces for a critical juncture in its democratic journey, unity and commitment to upholding the rule of law will be crucial in safeguarding the integrity of the electoral process.
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