Rédaction Africa Links 24 with Greg Mills and Ray Hartley
Published on 2024-03-14 19:56:27
The Brenthurst Foundation’s election poll reveals an interesting trend where Jacob Zuma’s MK party is rapidly gaining popularity at the expense of the ANC, the EFF, and the IFP. The dynamic between the MK party and the EFF is evident, as the ANC’s radical economic transformation wing, led by Ace Magashule, left the party late last year, boosting the EFF’s support. In a poll conducted in October 2023, the EFF gained 6%, reaching 17%. However, with Zuma presenting himself and the MK party as an alternative, some supporters have switched allegiance, causing the EFF’s support to drop by 10% in the latest survey.
The ANC, under Cyril Ramaphosa’s leadership, has also seen a decline in support, dropping by two percent in the latest survey. This loss can be attributed to a significant number of supporters in KwaZulu-Natal shifting their allegiance to Zuma’s MK party, which now holds 25% of the support in the province. With the DA, IFP, and ANC holding 19%, 19%, and 20% respectively in the province, a coalition government seems inevitable.
The resurgence of Zuma and the challenges it poses to the ANC can be attributed to Ramaphosa’s failure to effectively address corruption within the party. Corruption and weak leadership rank among the top problems facing the country, alongside unemployment and load shedding. The public’s discontent is evident, with 80% believing the country is heading in the wrong direction, with most holding the ANC accountable.
Ramaphosa’s leadership, once seen as a beacon of hope during the “Ramaphoria” wave, has faltered due to his failure to decisively tackle corruption. The appointment of ministers implicated in State Capture and the lack of action against corrupt individuals have diminished public confidence in his administration. The failure of the prosecution authority to effectively prosecute corruption cases further highlights the challenges faced by the government.
The link between unemployment and corruption is a significant concern for voters, with many feeling sidelined as government positions are allocated to party loyalists or “tenderpreneurs” rather than based on merit. The ANC’s prolonged rule, now at 30 years, has raised questions about its ability to address the legacy of apartheid and deliver on its promises. The upcoming election is likely to result in a coalition government, with the ANC still holding the largest share of support but facing significant challenges from Zuma and the MK party.
The future political landscape in South Africa remains uncertain, with the possibility of coalition governments and power shifts looming. The decisions made by the ANC regarding potential alliances with other parties will shape the country’s direction in the coming years. Zuma’s comeback and the influence he holds in key provinces could potentially alter the balance of power, making him a key player in the political arena. Ultimately, the outcome of the election will determine the path South Africa takes, whether towards eliminating corruption and restoring public trust or further entrenching authoritarian tendencies.
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