Rédaction Africa Links 24 with David Everatt
Published on 2024-02-27 19:08:00
Pollsters are often the subject of jokes that suggest elections are mainly held to see which pollster got it right. However, the reality is that by the time elections roll around, pollsters are forgotten, and their predictions are disregarded. According to Wolfgang Donsbach, the impact of polls on election outcomes is minimal and harmless. Politicians and social scientists tend to overestimate the significance of polls, which are often overshadowed by media and political pundits making their own electoral predictions.
As we approach national and provincial elections on May 29th, readers are bombarded with polls of varying results, leading to skepticism and criticism about the accuracy of polling. Some may even view pollsters as untrustworthy as corrupt lawyers or crooked politicians. This skepticism may be fueled by the technical language used in polling reports, which is not always explained to the general public. Terms such as weighting, imputing, margin of error, and confidence intervals can be confusing to readers, adding to the mystique surrounding polling.
The lack of regulation in the polling industry in South Africa is a notable concern. In contrast, countries like the UK and the US have organizations that oversee poll quality and set standards for transparency and accuracy. The absence of regulatory bodies in South Africa may contribute to the decline in poll quality and the public’s lack of trust in poll results.
The decline in poll quality globally in the 2010s has raised concerns about the accuracy of polling data. Many polls have overstated support for political candidates, leading to inaccuracies in electoral predictions. Transparency has been identified as a crucial factor in improving poll quality, with pollsters who provide clear explanations of their methodology producing more accurate results.
Sampling is a critical aspect of polling, with random samples being used to represent the views of the entire population. Larger sample sizes provide a more accurate representation of the population, but they can be costly. Weighting is used to adjust sample data to reflect the total population accurately. Issues such as cellphone penetration and demographic disparities can affect the accuracy of polling data, as certain demographics may be underrepresented in surveys.
Overall, the effectiveness of polling remains a topic of debate, with concerns about the quality and accuracy of poll results. The lack of regulation in the polling industry, coupled with technical jargon and methodological complexities, can contribute to public skepticism about polling data. Transparency and adherence to rigorous sampling methods are essential for improving the quality and accuracy of poll results. By addressing these issues, pollsters can enhance the credibility and reliability of their work and provide more accurate predictions for future elections.
Read the original article on Daily Maverick
