Rédaction Africa Links 24 with Ed Stoddard
Published on 2024-03-26 20:21:14
South Africa is facing a significant decrease in maize production for 2024, with forecasts predicting a drop of over 19% to 13.255 million tonnes from the previous year’s harvest of 16.430 million tonnes, according to the CEC. This decline is largely attributed to droughts associated with the El Niño weather pattern affecting southern Africa.
Of particular concern is the outlook for staple white maize, which serves as the main source of calories for many impoverished households in South Africa and the region. The CEC estimates a 26% decrease in white maize production for 2024, equating to 6.277 million tonnes. This forecast is expected to have negative implications for domestic inflation, food security, and household incomes, as there will be little to no surplus white maize available for export to neighboring countries also experiencing crop failures.
This latest projection from the CEC marks a revision from its initial estimate released a month prior, which anticipated a maize crop of nearly 14.4 million tonnes, reflecting a 12.6% decrease from the previous year. The subsequent heat waves and lack of sufficient rainfall have further deteriorated crop conditions, leading the CEC to adjust its forecast downwards.
While yellow maize production, primarily used for animal feed, is projected to decline by approximately 12%, the drop is less dramatic compared to white maize due to more favorable weather conditions in the eastern regions where yellow maize is predominantly cultivated.
The broader impact of the adverse weather conditions extends beyond maize, with summer crop production, including soybeans and sorghum, expected to be significantly lower in 2024. Overall, the CEC anticipates a decline in summer crop production to 15.589 million tonnes from over 20.1 million tonnes in the previous season, representing a reduction of more than 21%.
The repercussions of these diminished crop yields will vary among farmers, with some facing substantial losses while others may benefit from rising prices. However, the uneven distribution of these outcomes emphasizes the challenges posed by the volatile agricultural sector.
The prevailing situation underscores the impending food inflation as a result of reduced crop productivity, with consumer prices likely to escalate in the coming months. This development has implications for the Monetary Policy Committee of the South African Reserve Bank, which closely monitors inflation trends in shaping monetary policy decisions.
The climatic disturbances, exacerbated by human-induced climate change, highlight the vulnerability of the agricultural sector to extreme weather patterns like El Niño. While the current scenario in South Africa indicates sufficient maize stocks for domestic consumption, concerns remain for neighboring countries facing drought emergencies.
As the agricultural industry grapples with uncertainty and potential revisions to crop forecasts, stakeholders are advised to remain vigilant and adapt to the evolving conditions to mitigate the impact on food security and economic stability. The cyclical nature of weather phenomena underscores the need for sustainable practices and resilience in confronting future climate challenges.
Read the original article on Daily Maverick
