Rédaction Africa Links 24 with Queenin Masuabi
Published on 2024-02-28 22:45:32
The Democratic Alliance (DA) may face a decline in the Western Cape in the 2024 provincial elections, according to independent election analyst Wayne Sussman. The party’s support has fluctuated in recent years, with a high of 59.38% in 2014 and a drop to 55.45% in 2019. A recent Ipsos poll predicts the DA’s support in the upcoming elections to be only 44%, raising the possibility of a coalition government in the province.
Sussman points out that the DA has been losing ground in areas like George and parts of the Cape Winelands, high-population areas where by-election results have shown decreased support. However, data from the Cape Flats is limited, making it unclear how the DA will fare in those areas. Sussman believes that parties like Al Jama-ah and the Patriotic Alliance would need significant growth to pose a challenge to the DA, but Al Jama-ah may gain more seats in the Western Cape legislature.
The ANC, on the other hand, is unlikely to see significant growth in the province and may need to work with smaller parties if the DA loses its majority. Sussman suggests that the ANC might focus on their premier candidate, who has not yet been announced, to improve their prospects. However, he believes that the ANC is more likely to see growth in specific areas like Athlone and the City Bowl, rather than across the entire province.
In the 2019 elections, the ANC received 28.63% of the vote in the Western Cape, while both the Patriotic Alliance and Al Jama-ah received less than 1%. Despite the potential for the entrance of smaller parties to shake up the political landscape, the DA remains confident in their ability to retain the Western Cape. DA provincial leader Tertuis Simmers highlights the party’s track record of clean governance and service delivery, emphasizing that voters want a government that works.
Al Jama-ah leader Ganief Hendricks is looking to potentially form a coalition with the ANC to challenge the DA in the Western Cape. Hendricks believes that by working together, they can overcome the DA’s stronghold in the province. The Patriotic Alliance, led by Kenny Kunene, also aims to compete for the majority in the Western Cape, with Kunene expressing confidence in their electoral strength.
The ANC, meanwhile, is open to forming alliances with other parties that align with their policies. ANC Western Cape spokesperson Muhammad Sayed emphasizes the party’s commitment to addressing the needs of vulnerable populations in the province. The ANC plans to engage in coalition discussions following the election results.
Overall, the 2024 provincial elections in the Western Cape are shaping up to be more competitive than previous polls, with the potential for shifts in the political landscape and the emergence of new alliances. The DA, ANC, Al Jama-ah, and the Patriotic Alliance are all vying for support as they prepare for the upcoming election.
Read the original article on Daily Maverick
