Rédaction Africa Links 24 with A. CHANNAJE
Published on 2024-03-31 18:48:00
The dry and prolonged weather conditions are causing concerns in Morocco regarding the cereal production of 2024. This is highlighted in an updated synthesis on the food security situation recently published by the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS).
“The sowing of the winter crops for 2024, which are almost entirely rainfed, was completed last December. Despite some rain in February, precipitation levels have been below average until the beginning of March 2024, which, combined with above-average temperatures, has led to widespread drought conditions,” the institution affiliated with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) stated.
The soil moisture deficits have caused severe stress to the crops during their vegetative phase, the same source mentioned in the document. Furthermore, the water levels in the main dams have remained low compared to the average, limiting the availability of water for irrigation. Given the current climate situation, the prospects for the winter crops of 2024 are unfavorable, according to GIEWS.
The total cereal production in 2023 is estimated at around 5.6 million tons, with a substantial recovery compared to the harvest of 2022 which was affected by severe drought, but still about 15% below the five-year average due to widespread and prolonged dry weather conditions, as indicated by GIEWS. Wheat and barley production in 2023 are estimated at 4.1 and 1.3 million tons respectively, around 17% and 20% below the five-year average, added the FAO body.
Taking into account the below-average production of 2023, the cereal import needs for 2023/2024 (July/June) are expected to reach 9.9 million tons, about 24% higher than the five-year average. Wheat represents about 60% of cereal imports, with imports estimated at 6.1 million tons, nearly 22% higher than the five-year average.
To cope with the decrease in cereal production and meet its consumption needs, the Kingdom has mainly turned to the Russian market. “Since the end of 2023, the share of wheat imports from the Russian Federation has been increasing, alongside a decrease in imports from the European Union,” GIEWS stated.
It is worth noting that the Kingdom suspended wheat import duties since November 2021 to encourage the buildup of stocks. In December 2023, the government introduced import subsidies for soft wheat used to produce bread, which are expected to remain in place until April 2024.
In late January 2024, the government also implemented a mechanism to build up wheat stocks by providing a subsidy for storage of 2.5 DH per quintal of wheat stored every 15 days.
Regarding food prices, despite the country’s high dependence on imports, the transmission of high international prices to domestic markets is mitigated by government subsidies. In order to preserve the purchasing power of Moroccans, the government plans to continue subsidizing the prices of soft wheat flour, sugar, and butane gas in 2024.
The annual inflation rate was estimated at 2.3% in January 2024 following a gradual decrease in price levels compared to around 10% recorded in February 2023. The annual inflation rate for food products was estimated at 4.3% in January 2024, steadily decreasing from the peak of 20% in February 2023, GIEWS highlighted.
It should be noted that this research note by GIEWS did not take into account the heavy rains that have recently fallen in most of the country’s agricultural regions. These rains are expected to have a positive impact on improving agricultural production, particularly for spring crops and livestock fodder. They should also help replenish the groundwater and water reserves in national dams.
Read the original article(French) on L’Opinion
